Emerging markets bromsar in

Det är inte bara Kina som har överraskat negativt bland BRICS-länderna på sistone. Som jag nämnt tidigare har en del börjat tvivla på om Kina kan nå sitt tillväxtmål på 7,5% i år, men trots detta är landet långt bättre än resten i klassen. Brasilien har växlat ner till en tillväxt som inte överensstämmer med landets emerging markets-status, och Indien som ett tag såg ut att kunna imitera den starka tillväxten i Kina upplever nu en betydligt mer modest utveckling. De senaste åren har Brasilien åtnjutit stark tillväxt till följd av Kinas råvaruboom, men landet har ändå inte lyckats bygga upp den infrastruktur och de institutioner som krävs för att landet ska fungera utan starka råvarupriser. Brasilien växte inte mer än 0,9% förra året, och samtidigt dras landet med typiskt hög Sydamerikansk inflation. Brasilien riskerar därmed att hamna i ett stagflations-scenario framöver.

Brazil faces 1970s stagflation as resource boom wilts

Brazil has been forced to tighten monetary policy to curb inflation despite a slump in growth and a manufacturing crisis, raising fears that the country’s economic model is breaking down. 

The central bank raised interest rates a half point to 8pc, bucking the worldwide trend towards looser money. The surprise move came hours after the release of data showing growth remained stuck at 1.9pc in the first quarter. This was far short of expectations for the fifth quarter in a row and dashes hopes of a quick return to pre-crisis growth rates. The country grew just 0.9pc last year, a recession in emerging market terms.

“Brazil is stuck in a 1970s 'stagflation’ trap,” said Lars Christensen from Danske Bank. “It has rising inflation and falling long-term growth. There is obviously a structural problem and it is getting worse.

The economic boom for much of the past decade was driven by exports of iron ore, grains and other raw materials, mostly to China. The commodity bonanza caused a surge in the real and an erosion of the country’s industrial base, a textbook case of the “resource curse”. Brazil’s car exports have been in freefall. Overall manufacturing output is still 3pc below the pre-Lehman peak, a pattern closer to southern Europe than Asia’s tigers.

Brazil languishes at 130 in the World Bank’s rankings for ease of doing business, below Bangladesh and Ethiopia. It is at 116 for enforcing contracts, 121 for starting a business and 156 for paying taxes.

Tillväxten i Brasilien har återhämtat sig något sedan 2012 men det var
länge sen man kunde kalla landet en tillväxtmarknad

India records worst GDP growth in a decade

India has recorded its worst GDP growth in a decade amid continuing concerns over corruption, high inflation, poor infrastructure development and weak government

Official figures released by the government revealed GDP had increased by 0.1pc in the last quarter compared with the same period last year from 4.7pc to 4.8pc but overall growth for 2012-13 dropped from 6.2pc last year to 5pc.

The figures were met with disappointment in India and among Indian business leaders throughout the world who said it marked a significant decline from the optimism of the last six years when growth appeared set to move into double digits.

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He said India should have capitalised on its advantages over China – as an English-speaking country with a British legal system – to grow faster but blamed its failure to invest in infrastructure, especially in the power sector, for the current decline.

Five per cent GDP is nothing for India, it should think eight or nine per cent because we have to catch up,” he told the Telegraph.

.........

“The weak GDP numbers were a result of the combination of loose fiscal policy, tight monetary policy and policy paralysis: especially in the slow progress of funding of new infrastructure projects in the first two quarters of FY 2013. Spiralling inflation limited the scope of monetary policy in stimulating the economy in FY 2013,” she said.

Ett tag såg Indien ut att vara på väg mot tvåsiffrig tillväxt, men nu har tillväxten bromsat
in och lagt sig kring 5%. Precis som Brasilien dras Indien med hög inflation vilket hindrar
 landet från en lös monetär politik trots avmattningen i tillväxt