Yuanen går om euron som världens näst mest handlade valuta

Yuanen är numera den näst mest handlade valutan efter dollarn. Det här är en effekt av att Kina öppnar upp sina kapitalmarknader allt mer, och den utfasning av dollarn som Kina inlett genom swap-avtal med EU, Storbritannien, Japan, Australien osv. Dessutom premierar Kina exempelvis amerikanska importörer som väljer att betala sina kinesiska leverantörer i Yuan. Det här innebär att Yuanen gradvis ersätter dollarns roll i Kinas handel med omvärlden. Under de första 9 månaderna 2013 hanterades 17% av Kinas globala handel med Yuanen. Under 2009 var motsvarande siffra 1%. Bruket av Yuanen globalt är fortfarande minimalt, men trenden uppåt är imponerande. På knappt två år har Yuanens andel på de globala valutamarknaderna mångdubblats. Det är många år kvar innan Yuanen kan konkurrera med dollarn, men det är tydligt att Kina inlett arbetet med att fasa ut dollarn som global reserv- och handelsvaluta.

Ett intressant citat från Kina på sistone kom från Yi Gang på People's Bank of China. Den 20e november sa han att det inte längre är i Kinas intresse att fortsätta bygga upp valutareserven. Idag består större delen av Kinas valutareserv av dollar, så vad uttalandet innebär är att Kina inte längre har något intresse av att fortsätta köpa US Treasuries. Förmodligen kommer Kina inte att sälja av sitt nuvarande innehav av Treasuries, men det är tydligt att de inte har något intresse av att öka denna position.

Yuan Passes Euro as 2nd-Most Used Trade-Finance Currency

"China’s yuan overtook the euro to become the second-most used currency in global trade finance after the dollar this year, according to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication.

“It’s true that overseas exporters are using the renminbi more as the contract currency to increase the attractiveness and competitiveness of goods or services sold to China,” said Cynthia Wong, the Hong Kong-based head of emerging-market trading for Singapore and Hong Kong at Societe Generale SA.

..........

China is seeking a greater role for its currency in global trade and investment as the state loosens controls on the exchange rate and borrowing costs in the world’s second-largest economy. People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor Yi Gang said Nov. 20 it is no longer in the nation’s interest to keep building up its foreign-exchange reserves, which totaled a record $3.66 trillion at the end of September.

..Agreements were announced this quarter to start direct currency trading between the yuan and both the British pound and Singapore dollar.

“The renminbi is clearly a top currency for trade finance globally and even more so in Asia,” Franck de Praetere, Swift’s Singapore-based head of payments and trade markets for Asia Pacific, said in the statement.

..........

International use of the yuan is increasing as China opens up its capital markets. In the first nine months of this year, about 17 percent of China’s global trade was settled in the currency, compared with less than 1 percent in 2009, according to Deutsche Bank AG.

China and the U.K. will begin direct trading between the yuan and the British pound, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said on Oct. 15. China also approved an 80 billion yuan quota allowing investors in London to buy onshore assets. Singapore inked a similar agreement with China a week later. Direct trading between the currencies of Japan and Australia started in the past two years.

The European Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China agreed to establish a bilateral currency swap line of as much as 350 billion yuan, the Frankfurt-based central bank said in October.

The People’s Bank of China will “basically” end normal intervention in the foreign-exchange market and broaden the yuan’s daily trading limit, Governor Zhou Xiaochuan wrote in an article in a guidebook explaining reforms outlined following a Communist Party meeting that ended Nov. 12."

Ett par veckor gamla uttalanden från William Dudley

"Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said faster economic growth is needed to generate the lasting job gains that would prompt him to support a reduction in stimulus.

“The missing ingredient” is that “we haven’t actually seen an acceleration in the growth rate that will actually sustain the improvement in the labor market,” Dudley, 60, said to reporters during a press briefing in New York.

Dudley predicted U.S. economic growth will pick up next year and in 2015, saying he’s “more hopeful” the expansion is strengthening as the drag from fiscal policy wanes. Policy makers have said they will press on with bond purchases, now $85 billion a month, until the outlook for the labor market has “improved substantially.”

The New York Fed chief, who is also vice chairman of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee and has supported record stimulus, predicted a 2.5 percent to 3 percent expansion next year, with growth “a little bit stronger” in 2015.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty around that forecast,” Dudley said. “What we actually do will be defined by how the economy actually evolves.”

Inflation will “gradually drift” up toward the Fed’s 2 percent goal, while not reaching that level next year, Dudley predicted. He said he doesn’t think inflation “will be a problem for several years at a minimum.”

The FOMC is debating how to reduce bond purchases without triggering a sharp increase in bond yields. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the Fed will probably hold down its target interest rate long after ending so-called quantitative easing, and possibly after unemployment falls below 6.5 percent.

Near Zero

“The target for the federal funds rate is likely to remain near zero for a considerable time after the asset purchases end, perhaps well after” the jobless rate breaches the Fed’s 6.5 percent threshold, Bernanke said in a speech to economists in Washington. A “preponderance of data” will be needed to begin removing accommodation, he said.

Dudley said it’s “important that people get our message broadly right,” and that “the challenge of communication” is a “little more difficult than usual” because policy maker are relying on new tools after cutting the benchmark interest rate almost to zero in December 2008.

Unemployment was 7.3 percent in October. The economy grew last quarter at a 2.8 percent rate. Fed officials forecast a 2 percent to 2.3 percent expansion for 2013, compared with a 1.7 percent estimate released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development."


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