Ännu en intervju med Rickards. Nu rör det Yellen och hur Feds policys kommer att förändras efter att hon tar över. Enligt Rickards är Yellen mer sannolik att sätta upp mål för pengatryckandet och fortsätta trycka pengar tills målen har nåtts. Rickards återkommer även till vad "helicopter money" egentligen är. Enligt honom syftar uttrycket inte rent praktiskt på pengar som släpps ur en helikopter utan på skattelättnader som finansieras genom pengatryckande från Federal Reserves sida. Genom att sätta de nytryckta pengarna direkt i handen på konsumenten eliminerar man bankerna ur ekvationen - de som i nuläget är de största vinnarna på QEn. Bankerna har emellertid visat motvilja att sätta pengarna i cirkulation i ekonomin, något man räknar med att konsumenterna är bättre på.
fredag 11 oktober 2013
torsdag 10 oktober 2013
Rickards om skuldtaket
Rickards i debatt om vad datumet 17e oktober och skuldtaket egentligen har för betydelse för den amerikanska staten. Enligt Rickards kan den amerikanska staten, om den vill, undvika default på i stort sett obestämd tid även om skuldtaket inte höjs
Government Shutdown Clock
Nu finns det en live-klocka för den amerikanska statens partiella nedstängning. På samma sida kan man även se vilka delar av amerikanska staten som drabbats hårdast. Klicka på bilden nedanför för att komma till klockan.
På tal om skuldtaks-debatten i USA
Debatten om statens skuldtak fortsätter att brisera i USA. Även om Obama inte lyckas höja skuldtaket innan den 17e oktober skulle det dröja ett bra tag innan USA tvingas genomgå en faktiskt default, men situationen skulle skapa turbulens på marknaden och sänka förtroendet för dollarn. Nedan ett diagram från den pågående debatten, sammanställt av en republikansk senator:
onsdag 9 oktober 2013
Guld faller på uttalanden från FOMC
Idag kom ytterligare uttalanden från FOMC-mötet i september som visar att många av Fed-ledamöterna ansåg att tapering inte var att utesluta senare i år. Enligt Fed-minutes kom en majoritet av Fed-ledamöterna till mötet med åsikten att Federal Reserve borde skala ner sina stödköp redan i september. Väl vid röstning var det bara 1 av 10 som röstade för tapering i september, men enligt Fed minutes ska det trots detta varit ett "close call". Som jag nämnt i tidigare inlägg är tapering osannolik i oktober eller december av ett flertal anledningar. Dessutom har vikten av uttalanden från FOMC i september minskat sen den partiella nedstängningen av amerikanska staten i oktober samt den nuvarande debatten kring lånetaket.
Most on Fed still see taper this year: minutes
Most members of the Federal Reserve still thought that it would be appropriate to scale back its stimulus program this year, even as the central bankers decided to hold off moving in mid-September, according to the minutes of the meeting released Wednesday. A majority of Fed officials arrived at the September meeting still thinking that it would be appropriate to begin tapering the $85 billion bond purchase program this year and end it completely by the middle of 2014, the minutes showed. Officials who supported holding steady in September were worried that interest rates might move higher after the decision. Several Fed officials said their decision to hold policy steady in September was a close call.
Most on Fed still see taper this year: minutes
Most members of the Federal Reserve still thought that it would be appropriate to scale back its stimulus program this year, even as the central bankers decided to hold off moving in mid-September, according to the minutes of the meeting released Wednesday. A majority of Fed officials arrived at the September meeting still thinking that it would be appropriate to begin tapering the $85 billion bond purchase program this year and end it completely by the middle of 2014, the minutes showed. Officials who supported holding steady in September were worried that interest rates might move higher after the decision. Several Fed officials said their decision to hold policy steady in September was a close call.
Indien mer än dubblar silverimporten
För att råda bot på Indiens negativa bytesbalans har landets regering infört ett antal importrestriktioner och importskatter på guld under det senaste året. Indiens negativa bytesbalans bottnar naturligtvis inte i landets stora guldimport men det är på den vägen regeringen väljer att attackera problemet. De hårda restriktionerna och nya skatterna på guldimport har lett till att Indien nu importerar betydligt större mängder silver än tidigare. Mellan januari och augusti importerade Indien 4 073 ton silver, vilket är mer än dubbelt så mycket som de 1 921 ton guld som importerades till landet under helåret 2012.
Enligt data från Metals Focus Ltd ökade Indiens silverimport med hela 311% under Q2 i år jämfört med samma kvartal året innan. Håller Indien samma takt under resten av 2013 ser landet ut att kunna importera hela 25% av världsproduktionen under året. Det är ganska stora siffror för en metall som har en så pass stor industriell efterfrågan som silver. Fortsätter den Indiska regeringen att införa hårdare importrestriktioner för guld kan Indiens andel av den globala silvermarknaden dessutom mycket väl fortsätta att växa. Sannolikheten att den Indiska regeringen inför importrestriktioner även för silver är ganska små, då importmarknaden för silver än så länge är relativt liten. Under 2012 var värdet på Indisk guldimport 52 BUSD, medan silverimporten inte var värd mer än 1,8 BUSD.
Enligt data från Metals Focus Ltd ökade Indiens silverimport med hela 311% under Q2 i år jämfört med samma kvartal året innan. Håller Indien samma takt under resten av 2013 ser landet ut att kunna importera hela 25% av världsproduktionen under året. Det är ganska stora siffror för en metall som har en så pass stor industriell efterfrågan som silver. Fortsätter den Indiska regeringen att införa hårdare importrestriktioner för guld kan Indiens andel av den globala silvermarknaden dessutom mycket väl fortsätta att växa. Sannolikheten att den Indiska regeringen inför importrestriktioner även för silver är ganska små, då importmarknaden för silver än så länge är relativt liten. Under 2012 var värdet på Indisk guldimport 52 BUSD, medan silverimporten inte var värd mer än 1,8 BUSD.
Yellen sannolikt ny Fed chairman
WSJ rapporterar idag att Obama, inte särskilt oväntat, kommer att nominera Janet Yellen till ny Fed chairman imorgon. De mest sannolika nomineringarna till posten har varit Janet Yellen och Lawrence Summers, men redan i september drog Summers tillbaka sin kandidatur. Att Yellen nomineras till ny Fed chairman var därmed inte särskilt otippat. Yellen är känd för att vara en ännu större duva än Bernanke vilket innebär att Feds lösa monetära policy mycket väl kan fortsätta ett bra tag till.
Yellen Is Obama's Choice as Fed Chief
President Barack Obama will nominate Janet Yellen to run the Federal Reserve, calling on the central bank's second in command to become the world's most powerful economic policy maker after months of sometimes bitter debate about Chairman Ben Bernanke's successor.
Ms. Yellen's nomination, which the White House said would be announced Wednesday, would be subject to Senate confirmation amid squabbling between Democrats and Republicans over fiscal issues. The federal government has been partially shut since Oct. 1, after its spending authority expired. The U.S. Treasury estimates that by Oct. 17 it will be low on cash because a federal debt ceiling prevents it from borrowing more.
Ms. Yellen's nomination would mean the Fed is unlikely to make any unusual lurches in its easy-money policies in the near term
.............
With inflation running below its 2% target, the central bank can afford to keep the nation's credit spigots wide open to encourage economic growth and hiring, she has argued.
"There is the high cost that unemployed workers and their families are paying in this disappointingly slow recovery," she said in a speech in March. "At present I view the balance of risks as still calling for a highly accommodative monetary policy to support a stronger recovery and more-rapid growth in employment."
Yellen Is Obama's Choice as Fed Chief
President Barack Obama will nominate Janet Yellen to run the Federal Reserve, calling on the central bank's second in command to become the world's most powerful economic policy maker after months of sometimes bitter debate about Chairman Ben Bernanke's successor.
Ms. Yellen's nomination, which the White House said would be announced Wednesday, would be subject to Senate confirmation amid squabbling between Democrats and Republicans over fiscal issues. The federal government has been partially shut since Oct. 1, after its spending authority expired. The U.S. Treasury estimates that by Oct. 17 it will be low on cash because a federal debt ceiling prevents it from borrowing more.
Ms. Yellen's nomination would mean the Fed is unlikely to make any unusual lurches in its easy-money policies in the near term
.............
With inflation running below its 2% target, the central bank can afford to keep the nation's credit spigots wide open to encourage economic growth and hiring, she has argued.
"There is the high cost that unemployed workers and their families are paying in this disappointingly slow recovery," she said in a speech in March. "At present I view the balance of risks as still calling for a highly accommodative monetary policy to support a stronger recovery and more-rapid growth in employment."
tisdag 8 oktober 2013
Vad händer om amerikanska kongressen inte höjer skuldtaket?
Obama sitter i nuläget med två problem kring halsen. Dels den partiella nedstängningen av den amerikanska staten som republikanerna tvingade fram i förra veckan, men nu hotar republikanska kongressledamöter dessutom med att inte höja statens skuldtak innan deadline den 17e oktober. Den partiella nedstängningen av den amerikanska staten är egentligen ingen jättehändelse även om den kommer att påverka den amerikanska tillväxten under det fjärde kvartalet. Misslyckas kongressen med att höja skuldtaket innan den 17e oktober riskerar den amerikanska staten däremot en default på sin skuld, vilket kommer att få effekter både på den amerikanska och globala ekonomin.
De kontinuerliga höjningarna av skuldtaket har länge setts som en självklarhet för många (mig själv inkluderat) - vad har USA egentligen för val? Men nu hotar republikanerna alltså med att riskera en djupare recession om inte deras krav kan mötas. Om skuldtaket inte höjs kommer statens upplåningsräntor att stiga, vilket kan få relativt snabb effekt i och med att den amerikanska staten kommer att behöva omfinansiera skulder värda 441 BUSD mellan den 25e oktober och 18e november:
Om den amerikanska staten inte vill defaulta på sin skuld kommer utgifterna dessutom att behöva skäras ned på drastiskt vilket kommer att slå hårt mot den amerikanska ekonomin. Lite längre ned listas 12 uttalanden från en rad kända namn och organisationer rörande de potentiella effekterna av ett fast skuldtak. Det mest intressanta kommer kanske från the US Treasury:
"A default would be unprecedented and has the potential to be catastrophic: credit markets could freeze, the value of the dollar could plummet, U.S. interest rates could skyrocket, the negative spillovers could reverberate around the world, and there might be a financial crisis and recession that could echo the events of 2008 or worse”
- Gerald Epstein, a professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst: “If the US does default, that will make the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy look like a cakewalk”
- Tim Bitsberger, a former Treasury official under President George W. Bush: “If we miss an interest payment, that would blow Lehman out of the water”
- Peter Tchir, founder of New York-based TF Market Advisors: “Once the system starts to break down related to settlement and payments, then liquidity disappears, as we saw after Lehman”
- Bill Isaac, chairman of Cincinnati-based Fifth Third Bancorp: “We can’t even imagine all the things that might happen, just like Henry Paulson couldn’t imagine all the bad things that might happen if he let Lehman go down”
- Jim Grant, founder of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer: “Financial markets are all confidence-based. If that confidence is shaken, you have disaster.”
- Richard Bove, VP of research at Rafferty Capital Markets: “If they seriously default on the debt, what we’re really talking about is a depression”
- Chinese vice finance minister Zhu Guangyao: “The U.S. is clearly aware of China’s concerns about the financial stalemate [in Washington] and China’s request for the US to ensure the safety of Chinese investments.”
- The U.S. Treasury Department: “A default would be unprecedented and has the potential to be catastrophic: credit markets could freeze, the value of the dollar could plummet, U.S. interest rates could skyrocket, the negative spillovers could reverberate around the world, and there might be a financial crisis and recession that could echo the events of 2008 or worse”
- Goldman Sachs: “We estimate that the fiscal pull-back would amount to 9pc of GDP. If this were allowed to occur, it could lead to a rapid downturn in economic activity if not reversed quickly”
- Simon Johnson, former chief economist for the IMF: “It would be insane to default, but it’s no longer a zero-percent probability”
- Warren Buffett about the potential of a debt default: “It should be like nuclear bombs, basically too horrible to use”
- Bloomberg: “Anyone who remembers the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. little more than five years ago knows what a global financial disaster is. A U.S. government default, just weeks away if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling as it now threatens to do, will be an economic calamity like none the world has ever seen.”
tisdag 1 oktober 2013
U.S government shutdown
The U.S. government began its first partial shutdown in 17 years, idling as many as 800,000 federal employees, closing national parks and halting some services after Congress failed to break a partisan deadlock by a midnight deadline...
Den amerikanska kongressen lyckades inte enas kring budgeten innan deadline vid 12 inatt och därmed inleder den amerikanska staten sin första nedstänging på 17 år. En grupp republikaner har motarbetat godkännandet av delar i Obamacare och stod fast vid sin hållpunkt ända fram till deadline. Ingenting kunde därmed bryta dödläget. Det ska bli intressant att se hur det här kommer påverka marknaderna när de öppnar i USA. Macroeconomic Advisers uppskattar att en 2-veckors shutdown skulle sänka den amerikanska tillväxten med 0,3%. Det är relativt mycket för en redan pressad ekonomi, och något som definitivt skulle kunna påverka sannolikheten för att Federal Reserve inleder tapering i oktober. Russia Today har listat 10 effekter nedstängningen kan få på USA och ekonomin:
1. Countdown to US default looms
A halt of US government operations would drag the world’s biggest economy closer to bankruptcy, something unprecedented in US history. If no budget deal is done, the US would bump up against their “debt ceiling” and run out of money by October 17. By then, the US government would have less than $30 billion cash on hand, Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew has calculated.
2. Hundreds of thousands of federal employees on furlough
A one-time layoff of 800,000 people working for the US government would erode the earlier projected economic growth of 2.5 percent for the fourth quarter of 2013 by about 0.32 percentage points, according to a forecast by Mark Zandi, chief economist and co-founder of Moody's Analytics. That projection assumes a two-week shutdown. If it drags into a whole month, the loss of GDP would rise to 1.4 percentage points.
3. Troops’ paychecks stopped
About 1.4 million military active-duty personnel would keep on working, but with their paychecks delayed. Approval for troops’ paychecks is dependent on Obama’s proposed 2014 federal budget being passed by Congress.
4. Women and children’s nutrition program threatened
Pregnant women and new moms who are poor and facing “nutrition risk” won’t be able to buy healthy food, as a looming shutdown would put bracers on the $6 billion Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women Infants and Children (WIC).
5. $85 billion in cuts to federal programs
When a shutdown was last threatened in March 2013, it would have resulted in $85 billion in automatic cuts in spending on federal programs – many aimed at alleviating social hardship. The cuts, known as sequestration, would affect grants to local organizations and funds that keep those programs running.
6. Housing loans halted
US federal programs that provide for about 30 percent of all new loans in the housing market – a backbone of the country’s economy – will be shut down. Government funding of new businesses will also be halted, as well as workplace health and safety inspections.
7. Trade talks scuppered?
US plans to have a Pacific trade deal, the Trans Pacific Partnership, signed with the US’s Asian partners could stall, as Obama may decide not to travel to this weekend’s Bali, Indonesia meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation nations. While he could still go if no deal is done by then, it could be a gift for his Republican opponents if Obama was seen to be jetting off to a tropical paradise at a time when federal employees were sent home without pay.
8. Visa delays likely
Thousands of Americans may not be able to get passports for foreign travel, and tourists travelling to the US will likely face delays in visa processing. During the last government shutdown in 1996-97, some 20,000-30,000 applications remained unprocessed daily.
9. Space program on hold
Space agency NASA will be hit the most, as the agency will need to furlough about 97 percent of its employees, though it will continue to keep workers at Mission Control in Houston and elsewhere to support the International Space Station, where the two NASA astronauts currently on board, Michael Hopkins and Karen Nyberg, may not know whether they have jobs to come back to.
10. National parks, museums and zoos would close to the public
State-funded museums, art galleries and zoos across the country would keep their doors closed Tuesday, leaving thousands of employees furloughed and visitors unable to see attractions. US national parks, from Yosemite to the Shenandoahs, as well as Washington’s National Mall, Lincoln Memorial and Constitution Gardens, would also be closed.
Den amerikanska kongressen lyckades inte enas kring budgeten innan deadline vid 12 inatt och därmed inleder den amerikanska staten sin första nedstänging på 17 år. En grupp republikaner har motarbetat godkännandet av delar i Obamacare och stod fast vid sin hållpunkt ända fram till deadline. Ingenting kunde därmed bryta dödläget. Det ska bli intressant att se hur det här kommer påverka marknaderna när de öppnar i USA. Macroeconomic Advisers uppskattar att en 2-veckors shutdown skulle sänka den amerikanska tillväxten med 0,3%. Det är relativt mycket för en redan pressad ekonomi, och något som definitivt skulle kunna påverka sannolikheten för att Federal Reserve inleder tapering i oktober. Russia Today har listat 10 effekter nedstängningen kan få på USA och ekonomin:
1. Countdown to US default looms
A halt of US government operations would drag the world’s biggest economy closer to bankruptcy, something unprecedented in US history. If no budget deal is done, the US would bump up against their “debt ceiling” and run out of money by October 17. By then, the US government would have less than $30 billion cash on hand, Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew has calculated.
2. Hundreds of thousands of federal employees on furlough
A one-time layoff of 800,000 people working for the US government would erode the earlier projected economic growth of 2.5 percent for the fourth quarter of 2013 by about 0.32 percentage points, according to a forecast by Mark Zandi, chief economist and co-founder of Moody's Analytics. That projection assumes a two-week shutdown. If it drags into a whole month, the loss of GDP would rise to 1.4 percentage points.
3. Troops’ paychecks stopped
About 1.4 million military active-duty personnel would keep on working, but with their paychecks delayed. Approval for troops’ paychecks is dependent on Obama’s proposed 2014 federal budget being passed by Congress.
4. Women and children’s nutrition program threatened
Pregnant women and new moms who are poor and facing “nutrition risk” won’t be able to buy healthy food, as a looming shutdown would put bracers on the $6 billion Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women Infants and Children (WIC).
5. $85 billion in cuts to federal programs
When a shutdown was last threatened in March 2013, it would have resulted in $85 billion in automatic cuts in spending on federal programs – many aimed at alleviating social hardship. The cuts, known as sequestration, would affect grants to local organizations and funds that keep those programs running.
6. Housing loans halted
US federal programs that provide for about 30 percent of all new loans in the housing market – a backbone of the country’s economy – will be shut down. Government funding of new businesses will also be halted, as well as workplace health and safety inspections.
7. Trade talks scuppered?
US plans to have a Pacific trade deal, the Trans Pacific Partnership, signed with the US’s Asian partners could stall, as Obama may decide not to travel to this weekend’s Bali, Indonesia meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation nations. While he could still go if no deal is done by then, it could be a gift for his Republican opponents if Obama was seen to be jetting off to a tropical paradise at a time when federal employees were sent home without pay.
8. Visa delays likely
Thousands of Americans may not be able to get passports for foreign travel, and tourists travelling to the US will likely face delays in visa processing. During the last government shutdown in 1996-97, some 20,000-30,000 applications remained unprocessed daily.
9. Space program on hold
Space agency NASA will be hit the most, as the agency will need to furlough about 97 percent of its employees, though it will continue to keep workers at Mission Control in Houston and elsewhere to support the International Space Station, where the two NASA astronauts currently on board, Michael Hopkins and Karen Nyberg, may not know whether they have jobs to come back to.
10. National parks, museums and zoos would close to the public
State-funded museums, art galleries and zoos across the country would keep their doors closed Tuesday, leaving thousands of employees furloughed and visitors unable to see attractions. US national parks, from Yosemite to the Shenandoahs, as well as Washington’s National Mall, Lincoln Memorial and Constitution Gardens, would also be closed.
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